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CCFI Commentary Issue 3, 2019

  Spot rates dropped on most service routes as peak season coming to end

  In this week, the China's export container transportation demand remained at high level. But due to the temporary deployed vessel capacities, there were still a few spaces available even the total supply was in tight. However, as the spot market rate greatly hiked on North America service routes while freight rates slightly dropped on most rest trade lanes, the composite index of SCFI still got increased. On January 18th, Shanghai (Export) Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) quoted 968.07 points, up by 3.0% compared with previous week.

  In the Europe and Mediterranean routes, the market transportation demand has increased significantly during the “pre-Spring-Festival” peak season. Even some carriers deployed additional vessel capacities to meet the market demand, most of the voyages still departed with full loads and some of them had to roll off some containers to next voyages. This week, the average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai Port on the European and Mediterranean routes were both close to 100%. Since the available space before the holiday was almost sold out, most carriers maintained their quotes without change. However, in order to stock up cargoes for voyages during the long holiday, some carriers have begun to decrease the booking rates, and the spot market freight rate has declined slightly. On January 18th, freight rates in the route from Shanghai to Europe and Mediterranean (contains seaborne related surcharges) were quoted USD970/TEU and USD978/TEU, slightly down by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, and up by 8.9% and 28.5% than same period last year.

  In the North America route, as the "Spring Festival" approached, the cargo volume continued to rise. But as a result of the previous "China-US trade friction", the shipping demand was overdraft by shipper owners’ advanced cargo delivery operations, which leading to a relative flat “peak season”. There were still plenty of spaces available for the market. This week, the average slot utilization rates ex Shanghai Port on the USWC and USEC routes were 90% and 95% respectively. After one week of wait and see, most carriers still began to implement the mid-month PSS plan despite weak market performance than expectation. On January 18th, freight rates in the routes from Shanghai to USWC and USEC (including seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD2114/FEU and USD3187/FEU, up by 11.6% and 4.8% respectively compared to last week, and up by 47.2% and 14.2% than same period last year.

  In the Persian Gulf route, market shipping demand was stable as well as the supply-and- demand relationship. This week, the average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai Port remained at around 95%, and some vessels departing with full loads. As the peak season was close to an end, most of the carriers adjusted their marketing strategy to secure cargo sources for voyages during the long holiday. The spot market rate turned down after seven consecutive weeks of rising. On January 18th, freight rate in the Shanghai to Persian Gulf route (contains seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD778/TEU, down by 4.4% from previous week.

  In the Australia/New Zealand route, even in the traditional transportation peak season, the cargo volume performance has not been improved. This week, the average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai Port was only about 80%. Due to the serious overcapacity situation and the intensified market competition, most carriers lowered the freight rate again to increase their ship loads and the spot market freight rate fell. On January 18th, freight rate in the Shanghai to Australia/New Zealand route (contains seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD542/TEU, down by 1.6% than one week ago, also sharply down by 60.1% than same period last year.

  In the South America route, the market transportation demand stood at high level, and the average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai Port was maintained at around 95%. As there were still some spaces available for booking, the increased freight rate was lacked of enough support. Most carriers had to adjust back their booking rate. Only some carriers, who hold their GRI plans last week, yet followed the market to increase their quotation in this week. The market rate trend went down as a whole. On January 18th, freight rate in the Shanghai to South America route (contains seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD1506/TEU, down by 10.1% compared to last week, and greatly down by 30.9% than same period last year.

  In the Japan route, shipping demand kept stable, and the freight rate slightly rebounded. On January 18th, freight index in the China to Japan route quoted 723.61 points, up by 1.4% from previous week.

 
 
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