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CCFI Commentary Issue 41, 2018

Freight rates diversified on shipping routes

 

In this week, as shipping demand slightly dropped after the National Day holiday while the capacity supply kept in lower level by carrier’s blank sailing operation, the overall supply and demand relationship was almost in stable. However, due to the different fundamentals on different shipping routes, spot rate trend diversified accordingly and the composite index of SCFI recorded a slight increase. On October 12th, Shanghai (Export) Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) quoted 904.51 points, up by 3.9% from previous week.

 

In the Europe route, according to data released by Markit, the final PMI value of the manufacturing sector in September was 53.2, down 0.1 from the previous value, indicating that the pace of economic recovery in Europe has slowed down and put negative effect on the increase of transportation demand. This week, as the shipping demand and vessel capacity dropped synchronously, the average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai waved between 85% ~ 90%. The spot market rate continued to decline. On October 12th, freight rate in the route from Shanghai to Europe (including seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD731/TEU, slightly down by 0.5% from one week ago. In the Mediterranean route, the market fundamental was similar to that of the Europe route. And the average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai was lower than that of Europe route, which kept around 85%. And the spot rate fell deeper than the Europe route. On October 12th, freight rate in the route from Shanghai to Mediterranean (including seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD751/TEU, down by 2.1% from last week ago.

 

In the North America route, some of economic indicators in the United States have been relatively strong in recent period, indicating that the foundation of the US economic development was relatively stable, supporting the growth of local residents' consumption and transportation demand. The shipping demand remained in strong ever after the National Day holiday, and the supply-demand relation kept in healthy level. The average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai stabilized above 95% with some voyages departing with full loads. Back by the strong fundamentals, spot rate on the USWC route continued to rise while rate on USEC almost was almost flat. On October 12th, freight rates in the routes from Shanghai to USWC and USEC (including seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD2503/FEU and USD3304/FEU, up by 7.3% and down by 0.5% respectively compared to last week.

 

In the Persian Gulf route, the cargo volume was in generally stable. Some carriers cut the capacity supply from the National Day holiday, helped the supply and demand relationship to be improved. The average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai rose to around 90%. Backed by this, spot market rate was slightly increased. On October 12th, freight rate in the Shanghai to Persian Gulf route (including seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD366/TEU, up by 3.4% from previous week.

 

In the Australia/New Zealand route, supported by the rapid recovering transportation demand after holiday, market fundamental was improved. The supply and demand relationship was improved by carriers’ capacity cutting measures. Spot rate increased sharply by the rate hiking plans. On October 12th, freight rate in the Shanghai to Australia/New Zealand route (including seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD716/TEU, surged up by 34.6% against one week ago.

 

In the South America route, transportation demand was rather flat after the holiday. However, benefit by carriers’ space contraction measures, the relationship between supply and demand remained stable. The average slot utilization rate ex Shanghai was close to 95%. The spot market rate fell slightly. On October 12th, freight rate in the Shanghai-South America route (including seaborne related surcharges) quoted USD952/TEU, down by 2.5% compared to last week.

 

In the Japan route, shipping demand maintained stable, and market rate slightly dropped. On October 12th, freight index in the China to Japan route quoted 709.46 points, down by 1.2% compared with last week.
 
 
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